WISCONSIN

GROK:

No, the Republicans did not win the Wisconsin Supreme Court election in 2025. On April 1, 2025, Susan Crawford, backed by the Democratic Party, defeated Brad Schimel, who was supported by the Republican Party, in a nonpartisan election for a seat on the Wisconsin Supreme Court. This victory allowed liberals to maintain a 4-3 majority on the court. The race drew significant national attention and record-breaking spending, with figures like Elon Musk and Donald Trump supporting Schimel, but Crawford emerged victorious, preserving the court's liberal lean through at least 2028.

The Republican loss in the Wisconsin Supreme Court election on April 1, 2025, where Brad Schimel was defeated by Susan Crawford, can be attributed to several key factors based on available data and political dynamics. Here’s a breakdown of what likely contributed:

1. High Democratic Turnout and Mobilization: Wisconsin has a history of tight races, and turnout often decides outcomes. Democrats heavily emphasized the election’s stakes, framing it as a defense of abortion rights and judicial independence after the 2022 overturning of Roe v. Wade. Crawford’s campaign leaned into this, tying Schimel to conservative efforts to restrict reproductive rights. This resonated in a state where public opinion has shifted left on social issues—polls like Marquette University’s showed strong support for abortion access, energizing liberal voters.
2. Spending Disparity and Outside Influence Backlash: The race saw unprecedented spending, topping $50 million, with both sides flooding the airwaves. Republicans, backed by figures like Elon Musk and Donald Trump, poured in funds, but this may have backfired. Musk’s involvement—donating millions and tying the race to his Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) agenda—alienated some moderates who saw it as outsider meddling in a state election. X posts from Wisconsinites reflected frustration with "billionaires buying our courts," potentially boosting Crawford’s grassroots appeal.
3. Candidate Perception and Experience: Crawford, a former prosecutor and attorney with a low-key, relatable style, contrasted with Schimel, a former Attorney General tied to conservative policies under Scott Walker. Schimel’s record—defending Act 10, opposing same-sex marriage, and pushing tough-on-crime stances—may have painted him as too partisan for a nonpartisan judicial role. Crawford’s campaign emphasized "fairness over ideology," which likely appealed to swing voters wary of judicial activism.
4. Political Climate and Trump Fatigue: Trump’s endorsement of Schimel, while rallying the GOP base, might have repelled independents. Wisconsin’s electorate has shown signs of "Trump fatigue" since his 2020 loss here, and his polarizing presence—amplified by Musk’s DOGE connection—could have hurt Schimel in suburban areas like Waukesha and Dane Counties, where moderates often tip scales. Crawford’s win aligns with a pattern of liberals overperforming in recent Wisconsin elections (e.g., Janet Protasiewicz’s 2023 Supreme Court victory).
5. Abortion as a Wedge Issue: Post-Dobbs, abortion has been a losing issue for Republicans in battleground states. Schimel’s past as AG, when he supported restrictive laws, was a liability. Democrats ran ads highlighting this, while Schimel struggled to pivot, insisting the court wouldn’t rule on abortion directly—a claim voters didn’t buy, given the court’s role in redistricting and potential future cases.
6. Redistricting and Voter Access: The liberal-leaning Supreme Court’s 2024 decision to strike down GOP-drawn legislative maps forced fairer districts for 2025. This likely boosted Democratic turnout in urban and suburban areas, countering rural Republican strength. Expanded early voting and mail-in options, upheld by the court, also favored Democrats, who historically excel at organizing these efforts.

In short, the loss stemmed from a energized Democratic base, strategic missteps by Republicans (overreliance on polarizing figures), and a candidate mismatch in a state where judicial races increasingly hinge on social issues and turnout. The GOP’s national brand, tied to Musk and Trump, didn’t translate to a win in Wisconsin’s nuanced political landscape.